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Natural Gas Weekly Update


Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, June 12, 2024)

Prices

  • Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 58 cents from $2.22 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.80/MMBtu yesterday.

  • Henry Hub futures price: The price of the July 2024 NYMEX contract increased 28.8 cents, from $2.757/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.045/MMBtu yesterday. Before Tuesday, when the front-month futures price settled at $3.129/MMBtu, the front-month price had not been above $3.00/MMBtu since January. The price of the 12-month strip averaging July 2024 through June 2025 futures contracts climbed 23.6 cents to $3.459/MMBtu.

  • Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, June 5, to Wednesday, June 12), along with the Henry Hub. Price changes ranged from a decrease of 41 cents at FGT Citygate to an increase of 59 cents at the Waha Hub.

    • Prices in the Northeast increased this report week, despite a decrease in natural gas consumption. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 22 cents from $1.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.77/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Eastern Gas South in southwest Pennsylvania, near Appalachia region production activities, increased 28 cents from $1.37/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.65/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Northeast decreased 4% (0.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The decrease in total consumption was led by a decline in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, which decreased by 9% (0.4 Bcf/d) in the Appalachia region. Temperatures in the Pittsburgh Area averaged 66°F this report week, 1°F lower than last week, resulting in 15 cooling degree days (CDD), 11 fewer CDDs than last week and 14 fewer than normal. The moderate temperatures also resulted in 8 heating degree days (HDD), 1 fewer HDD than normal and 5 fewer than last week.

    • In the Southeast, at FGT Citygate, which delivers natural gas into Florida, the price fell 41 cents from $4.14/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.73/MMBtu yesterday. Williams, operator of the Transco pipeline, announced that it has begun returning to service compressor station 60 in Jackson, Louisiana. Since May 6, the station had been undergoing maintenance, and throughput capacity was reduced by approximately 0.8 Bcf/d, restricting eastbound natural gas flows past the compressor station.

    • Price changes on the West Coast were mixed this report week, rising in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest and falling in Southern California. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 19 cents from $1.86/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.05/MMBtu yesterday. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price rose 14 cents from $1.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.61/MMBtu yesterday. On June 8, Puget Sound Energy, operator of the Jackson Prairie natural gas storage facility in Lewis County, Washington, notified Northwest Pipeline that maintenance had been completed at the facility and deliveries of natural gas into storage could resume. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 5 cents from $1.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.68/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, averaged 72°F this report week, resulting in 48 CDDs, 2 more CDDs than normal and 17 more than last week.

    • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, increased 59 cents from $0.67/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.26/MMBtu yesterday, mostly in line with the Henry Hub. The Waha Hub discount to the Henry Hub remained relatively flat from the previous report week; Waha traded $1.54 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.55 below the Henry Hub price. The Waha Hub price has been above $1.00 the last three days, reaching a weekly high of $1.37/MMBtu on Tuesday, the highest price since February.



    Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.


  • International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 1 cent to a weekly average of $11.99/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 19 cents to a weekly average of $10.81/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending June 14, 2023), the prices were $9.29/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.40/MMBtu at TTF.

  • Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 17 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.87/MMBtu for the week ending June 12. Ethane prices rose 6% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 17%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 9%. The ethylene spot price rose 4% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 3%. Propane prices increased 6%, while Brent crude oil prices increased 2% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil decreased 4% for the week. Normal butane prices rose 4%, isobutane prices fell 13%, and natural gasoline prices rose 2%.


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Supply and Demand




  • Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) to average 99.3 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 6.8% (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week.

  • Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.7% (1.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 4.5% (1.6 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.7% (0.2 Bcf/d), and residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 3.5% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 1.4% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.9 Bcf/d, or 0.3 Bcf/d lower than last week.



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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.3 Bcf/d from last week to 12.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 5.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 7.6 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 3.6% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.2 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.

  • Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-five LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four each from Cameron and Freeport, three from Calcasieu Pass, and one each from Cove Point and Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 94 Bcf departed the United States between June 6 and June 12, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.






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Rig Count

  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, June 4, the natural gas rig count decreased by 2 rigs from a week ago to 98 rigs. The DJ-Niobrara dropped one rig, the Marcellus dropped two rigs, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 4 rigs from a week ago to 492 rigs. The DJ-Niobrara added one rig, the Ardmore Woodford dropped one rig, and four rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 594 rigs, the first time the rig count has been under 600 rigs since January 2022.

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Other Market Drivers

  • The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorized the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to begin operations. MVP, a 303-mile pipeline, can move up to 2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas from Wetzel County, West Virginia, to an interconnection with Transco’s compressor station 165 in Pittsylvania County, Virginia.

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Storage

  • Net injections into storage totaled 74 Bcf for the week ending June 7, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 89 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 90 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,974 Bcf, which is 573 Bcf (24%) more than the five-year average and 364 Bcf (14%) more than last year at this time.

  • According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 60 Bcf to 83 Bcf, with a median estimate of 72 Bcf.

  • The average rate of injections into storage is 8% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 9.0 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,285 Bcf on October 31, which is 573 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

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See also:

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Natural gas spot prices


















Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)

Thu,

06-Jun

Fri,

07-Jun

Mon,

10-Jun

Tue,

11-Jun

Wed,

12-Jun

Henry Hub


2.29

2.44

2.63

2.72

2.80

New York


1.44

1.17

1.32

1.35

1.79

Chicago


1.69

1.52

1.84

1.82

2.23

Cal. Comp. Avg.*


1.61

1.55

1.76

1.81

1.76

*Avg. of NGI’s reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Data source: NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index



Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices










U.S. natural gas supply – Gas Week: (6/6/24 – 6/12/24)

Average daily values (billion cubic feet)

this week

last week

last year

Marketed production

112.5

112.8

116.1

Dry production

99.3

99.6

102.7

Net Canada imports

5.8

5.4

5.1

LNG pipeline deliveries

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total supply

105.2

105.1

107.8

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights

Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week’s posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.













U.S. natural gas consumption – Gas Week: (6/6/24 – 6/12/24)

Average daily values (billion cubic feet)

this week

last week

last year

U.S. consumption

68.6

67.5

68.3

    Power

37.8

36.1

37.0

    Industrial

21.6

21.8

21.8

    Residential/commercial

9.2

9.6

9.6

Mexico exports

7.0

6.9

6.7

Pipeline fuel use/losses

8.6

8.5

8.8

LNG pipeline receipts

12.9

13.2

11.6

Total demand

97.1

96.1

95.4

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights

Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week’s posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply

Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub











Rigs



Tue, June 04, 2024

Change from

 

last week

last year

Oil rigs


492


-0.8%


-11.5%

Natural gas rigs


98


-2.0%


-27.4%

Note: Excludes any miscellaneous
rigs









Rig numbers by type



Tue, June 04, 2024

Change from

 

last week

last year

Vertical


20


0.0%


5.3%

Horizontal


531


-0.9%


-15.0%

Directional


43


-2.3%


-15.7%

Data source: Baker Hughes Company












Working gas in underground storage

Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)

Region


2024-06-07


2024-05-31

change

East


603


575


28

Midwest


712


688 R


24

Mountain


224


218


6

Pacific


276


273


3

South Central


1,159


1,146


13

Total


2,974


2,900  R


74



R=Revised.

Working gas stocks were revised to reflect resubmissions of data during the five-week period from May 3, 2024, to May 31, 2024, increasing stocks by 6 Bcf to 9 Bcf for each week during this period. The reported revisions caused the stocks for May 31, 2024, to change from 2,893 Bcf to 2,900 Bcf, and working gas stocks for the week ending May 24, 2024, changed from 2,795 Bcf to 2,804 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending May 31, 2024, and May 24, 2024, changed from 98 Bcf to 96 Bcf. More information about the revised working gas levels can be found at: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngshistory.xls.



Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report



Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


















Working gas in underground storage

Historical comparisons

Year ago

6/7/23

5-year average

2019-2023

Region

Stocks (Bcf)

% change

Stocks (Bcf)

% change

East


568


6.2


485


24.3

Midwest


624


14.1


558


27.6

Mountain


145


54.5


138


62.3

Pacific


173


59.5


232


19.0

South Central

1,102

5.2

989

17.2

Total

2,610

13.9

2,401

23.9

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report


Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
















Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Jun 06)

 

HDDs

CDDs

Region

Current total

Deviation from normal

Deviation from last year

Current total

Deviation from normal

Deviation from last year

New England

12

-16

-36

12

7

1

Middle Atlantic

7

-13

-13

21

6

6

E N Central

12

-12

4

24

0

-12

W N Central

7

-14

7

36

6

-23

South Atlantic

4

-2

1

66

6

13

E S Central

2

-3

2

62

9

-1

W S Central

0

-1

0

95

11

16

Mountain

16

-18

-11

49

11

22

Pacific

11

-13

-13

15

-1

12

United States

8

-11

-4

42

5

5


Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

   Average temperature (°F)

   7-day mean ending Jun 06, 2024

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jun 06, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Deviation between average and normal temperature (°F)

   7-day mean ending Jun 06, 2024

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jun 06, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

Monthly U.S. dry shale natural gas production by formation is available in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

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